26 Expert Picks
Kris Knoblauch is apparently going back to Stuart Skinner in net for the Oilers in tonight's Game 6, a bit risky considering how poorly Skinner was seeing the puck earlier in this series. But the overarching theme of the second round is much like the first round league-wide as scorelines have reduced toward the end of the round, and Edmonton at least kept a tighter defensive shell in front of Cal Pickard the past two games by curbing some of its aggressiveness. We'll see tonight, but it seems here as if Rick Tocchet is dictating the tempo of this series, and Vancouver's ability to shadow Connor McDavid (only 5 points), mostly with JT Miller, has defined this matchup. Play Canucks-Oilers "Under"
We played this at Caesars for +140 on the alt line when the straight line was at 5.5 K's earlier this morning on Early Edge. Gausman struck out six batters in his last start, with only nine outs recorded before he was forced to leave the game after laboring through the 3rd inning. Now up against a Tampa Bay team that's seen the strikeout rate vs righties start to rise of late, I'll give Gausman a second chance here at home again.
Luis Severino of the New York Mets has had quite a turn around to the start of the 2024 season, but today is a spot to fade. Over his last two starts on the road he has had innings of allowing three runs to the San Francisco Giants and Tampa Bay Rays. In a divisional game look for that to be a factor for the Marlins. Take the Marlins as the slight home underdog.
The Oklahoma City Thunder should already be eliminated with as poor as they have played offensively against the Dallas Mavericks. Yet, they found a way in game four with a late rally at Dallas, and all it takes is that one game for a team to wake up in the postseason. Take the Thunder to finally look a bit more fluid offensively for the first time since game one.
The Texas Rangers will be up against a left-handed starter for the second consecutive game. The Angels have a 4-10 record in game two of a series, including 1-5 after a win. The Rangers' third (Lowe) and fourth (Garcia) batters in the previous game went 0-for-8. Texas has seven right-handed hitters in their lineup, and Patrick Sandoval has historically allowed a higher batting average against right-handed hitters (.271) than left-handed hitters (.185). Texas is ranked sixth (+9) in outs above average while the Angles are ranked 29th (-14). I like the Rangers in this spot!
Seattle and starting pitcher Luis Castillo will try and cool off the Baltimore Orioles bats. In yesterday’s series opener the Orioles scored nine runs, and won easily 9-2. Look for Castillo to fare better as he allowed just two hits to the Orioles in last year’s start. Grab the Mariners to cash as the slight road underdogs.
Luka Doncic is getting stronger as this series goes on. He is also getting help outside of Kyrie Irving from PJ Washington (19 ppg in this series) and Derrick Jones (11 ppg in this series). Mavs roll at home.
Similar play to Fri night - Nats are fading and Gore coming off a start where the manager rode him pretty hard against a lineup that is red hot and knows him pretty well. Phils 17-8 at home and 8 of their last 10 wins are by 2 runs or more. Nats lineup lagging (I bet James Wood gets the call to MLB by Memorial Day). Nats have .594 OPS in May (worst in MLB) with a .201/.293/.301 slashline. I don't love Sanchez on the mound but figure he can battle against this group.
We have been backing Royals with Lugo on bump all season, as the AL can't really seem to figure him out. He gets a faltering A's lineup here and while I think Ross Stripling is generally underrated, Sally got him twice in 7 ABs and A's pen might be running on fumes. Royals are 6-2 in Lugo's 8 starts in April/May, only losses were to teams leading division at the time (BAL and MIL) and all 6 wins by 2 runs or more. KC has +12 RD in his last 4 starts. A's in 2-11 rut, losing 9 of those games by 2+ runs. Royals are stout at home
The Jays are not good at home (9-10) or vs above .500 teams (13-18) and they are on the brink of another in-season manager firing. Only so many meetings you can call when you never win as many games as you think you will. Lot of pressure on a group that has always cracked under pressure. Rays finding ways to win again (10 of 14), Eflin will battle and Gausman is sporting an ERA around 5. I don't buy the Jays bats. Riding Rays ML again. I smell a sweep
This signing has been the best in ball so far, and the Cubs need a win today and their bullpen stinks. I see them riding Imanaga through 7 today if at all possible and he's done it in two of his last 3 starts. Twice recently he has gone over this mark despite not throwing even 90 pitches and he's been stretched out to over 100 once this month as well. Pirates lineup has had its share of issues.
The Pirates are suddenly a little hot, but have been riding their top three starters and this ain't one of them. I have all kinds of issues with the Cubbies pen, but this starter has been as close to perfect as you get and it might take just one run over 5 innings to get us home. Some of the Cubs big bats have done damage in limited sample vs Bailey Falter. Again, if trends hold we don't need much here
This is the lowest total for a Nuggets game all season, and it's not close. The two games in this series that went under 205 were both total blowouts in which starters were pulled way early and Denver barely scored. Not sure that will be the case in a Game 7. MIN playoff games average 209. Nugs avg 207.5. Nugs at home avg 203. Both teams have truly elite scorers. Nuggets won't shoot that poorly again at home with a repeat at stake. Scored 112+ in 3 straight vs that tough MIN defense. Only 2 of 11 DEN playoffs games are under this and 2 of their last 27 overall. Only 2 of 10 MIN playoff games under this and 2 of last 15 overall
Jack Flaherty has flashed brilliance at times this year, but he's consistently racked up strikeouts no matter the matchup, including punching out seven against the team with the lowest strikeout rate in the league in his last start. That should be enough to expect six Ks as a baseline even against teams like the D-Backs that don't strike out a ton, though I'll note that their lineup is much worse overall against righties than lefties. I think this number needs to be 6.5 for a pitcher with an 11.7 K/9 rate on the season.
Yu Darvish hasn't allowed a run in three straight starts, all against solid to good offenses. Bryce Elder has been uneven in his four starts, and I don't think it's controversial to say the Padres have the pitching edge in this matchup. They may also have the hitting edge, as their .748 OPS against righties tops the Braves' .721 mark. That's enough for me to back the Padres as the F5 moneyline underdog.